Former President Donald Trump and his allies are actively laying the groundwork to challenge the results of the upcoming November election, casting doubts on its legitimacy despite leading in several battleground states according to recent polls. Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election outcome, coupled with his repeated claims of potential voter fraud, is setting the stage for a contentious post-election period.
At his rallies, Trump has painted Democrats as cheaters and has called mail-in ballots corrupt. He has urged his supporters to vote in overwhelming numbers to make the election “too big to rig.” Trump has also backed a new Republican-sponsored bill aimed at preventing non-citizens from voting, tying his unfounded election fraud claims to illegal immigration issues. This legislation, despite voting by non-citizens already being illegal and exceedingly rare, is seen as part of his strategy to undermine trust in the electoral process.
Trump’s current tactics mirror those he employed during the 2020 election, where his baseless claims of voter fraud led to the January 6 Capitol attack. Despite facing criminal trials related to his actions post-2020 election, Trump continues to repeat these falsehoods, galvanizing his base and preparing legal strategies to contest the 2024 results if necessary.
Trump has directed the Republican National Committee (RNC), now led by his daughter-in-law, to focus on building a robust team of poll watchers and lawyers. The RNC plans to recruit 100,000 volunteers and attorneys, doubling their previous efforts, to monitor the vote and litigate any potential disputes. This initiative, touted as “the most extensive and monumental election integrity program in the nation’s history,” has drawn criticism from Democrats who see it as an intimidation tactic rather than a genuine effort to secure fair elections.
High-profile Republicans are supporting Trump’s narrative. Recently, House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced a bill to prohibit non-citizens from voting in federal elections, aligning with Trump’s false claims about Democrats allowing migrants to influence elections. Potential vice-presidential candidates like Senator Tim Scott and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum have also echoed doubts about committing to the election results.
Some Republican donors have expressed concern that the RNC’s emphasis on election integrity over get-out-the-vote efforts may be misplaced. During a staff overhaul earlier this year, the new RNC leadership reportedly questioned employees about their beliefs on the 2020 election, which some saw as a litmus test for loyalty to Trump’s fraud claims.
Trump’s rhetoric continues to influence his supporters deeply. Many Republican voters still believe that Trump was unfairly denied a second term due to widespread voter fraud, a sentiment echoed in recent polls. Tim Heaphy, the lead investigator on the House committee probing the January 6 attack, warned that Trump’s words could incite action, as seen in the Capitol riot.
Former National Security Adviser John Bolton and former Congressman Adam Kinzinger, both critics of Trump, express concerns about the potential for Trump to contest the 2024 results. Bolton points out that Trump no longer has the power of the presidency to aid his efforts, and the legal repercussions faced by his allies may deter similar actions. However, Kinzinger remains wary of the potential for chaos and violence if Trump and his supporters attempt to overturn a loss.
As the 2024 election approaches, Trump’s strategy of casting doubt on the electoral process and preparing to contest the results is likely to heighten tensions. The actions of his supporters and the legal battles that may ensue will play a crucial role in determining the outcome and the stability of the post-election period.
