A policy analyst, Basil Abia, has criticized the economic projections outlined in President Bola Tinubu’s 2025 budget proposal, labeling them as unattainable.
Inflation Reduction Targets Under Scrutiny
During his budget presentation at the National Assembly, President Tinubu announced ambitions to lower inflation from 34.6 percent to 15 percent by next year. However, speaking on Channels Television’s ‘Politics Today,’ Abia argued against the feasibility of this target, especially given Nigeria’s current oil production levels.
Critique on Economic Assumptions
Abia highlighted the disconnect between the budget’s inflation goals and the reality of oil production, which currently stands at 1.5 million barrels per day, below the projected two million. “The projections are not realistic… You cannot do 15 percent headline inflation rate when you are producing less than two million barrels per day,” he stated, emphasizing the need for a clear strategy to manage core inflation drivers.
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Exchange Rate Projections Draw Criticism
The President also promised an improvement in the exchange rate from N1,700 to N1,500 per dollar. This claim was met with skepticism by Chijioke Ekechukwu, Director General of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry, who appeared on the same program. Ekechukwu expressed concern that such projections might dampen hopes for a more significant reduction in the exchange rate, suggesting that the government’s forecast might be too conservative.
Budget Allocation Details
President Tinubu’s budget proposal, totaling N49.7 trillion, allocates funds across various sectors: N4.91 trillion for defense and security, N4.06 trillion for infrastructure, N2.4 trillion for health, and N3.5 trillion for education. Despite these allocations, the feasibility of achieving the set economic targets, according to analysts, remains in question.
